The original plan didn’t work out. On to the next one.
FIRE by 2026 is unlikely. A 5% chance, maybe? But who could have predicted a pandemic, market crash, and subsequent bubble?
My new obsession is antifragility. No more penny pinching for secure bets with limited upside. All opportunities will be based on their convexity. Limited downside, with asymmetric upside. Many thanks to NNT and his Incerto collection. If you haven’t read it yet, stop now and go order all the books. Or, according to NNT, I should say they all suck… And you will be more likely to go see for yourself.
FIRE is still the goal… But who knows when. Based on the simple 4% rule (where you calculate a FIRE number that allows you to withdraw 4% indefinitely without the total fund ever running out) my target number is:
$7,500,000
This allows for $300,000/year (pre tax). Just rough estimates to keep things simple. I know, this is a lot. But Jay-z once said, “9-5 is how you survive, but I’m not trying to survive, I’m trying to live it to the limit, and love it a lot.” I’m also fine with never achieving this number. But we all need something to strive for, right?
$7,200,000 to get there. We are currently around $300,000 give or take some bands. But total debts, mainly student loans and mortgage, hover around -$1,000,000… so that means there’s actually $8,200,000 to go… But I’m not one to shy away from a challenge.
Sigh.
This site will evolve into a daily tally and random thoughts.
JDMC Capital Management is in the works. The daily grind will also be documented. Observations. Rants. Whatever.
11.8.2023 +$6,027
Total = +$6,027
Goal = $7,500,000